Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 December 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (04 Dec, 05 Dec) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (06 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 03/0300Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2000Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/1346Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 03/0905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1127 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 103
Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 100/095/090
90 Day Mean 03 Dec 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10