Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 December 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 490km/s at 01/1914Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/1744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 30/2217Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at 01/0655Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 594 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 104
Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 105/100/095
90 Day Mean 01 Dec 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 007/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/10/10
Minor Storm 15/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 50/10/10