Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 25/0402Z from Region 2786 (S17E53). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s at 24/2225Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/1619Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at25/1604Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2329 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Nov, 27 Nov)

III. Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 104
Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 25 Nov 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 007/008-008/010-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/10