Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (24 Nov) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 619 km/s at 23/0245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2400 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Nov, 25 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M 10/10/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 096
Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 098/100/100
90 Day Mean 23 Nov 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 019/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 009/010-009/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor Storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/45/40