Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 327 km/s at 17/1215Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/2048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/0836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 275 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 079
Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 17 Nov 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10