Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 12/0227Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed component of Bz reached -1 nT at 12/1909Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 535 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 085
Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 12 Nov 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 005/005-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/20