Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/1522Z from Region 2781 (S23E29). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 06/0838Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 06/0413Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/0417Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1277 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 094
Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 094/094/094
90 Day Mean 06 Nov 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10