Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 04/0442Z from Region 2781 (S25E55). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 370 km/s at 04/0544Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 955 pfu

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 088
Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 04 Nov 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 006/005-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/25/25