Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (27 Oct, 28 Oct) and expected to be very low on day three (29 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 26/1324Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 25/2326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/0047Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16463 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 075
Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 26 Oct 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 012/015-010/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/40/30