Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 593 km/s at 25/0131Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/0536Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/1556Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5668 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (27 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 074
Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 074/072/070
90 Day Mean 25 Oct 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 013/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 016/020-012/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/30
Minor Storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 65/45/40