Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 24/1555Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 24/0027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 24/0107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 916 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (25 Oct, 27 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (26 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 072
Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 24 Oct 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 012/015-015/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/30
Minor Storm 20/25/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 50/65/45