Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 21/2132Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 22/0455Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/1157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 168 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 075
Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 22 Oct 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 015/020-013/015-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/35
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 65/65/50