Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 19/1636Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 19/1528Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 772 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expectedto be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (21 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (22 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 075
Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 19 Oct 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 007/008-011/015-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/40
Minor Storm 01/15/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 20/45/65