Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 312 km/s at 11/0906Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/0943Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 11/0036Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 780 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 073
Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 11 Oct 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10