Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 309 km/s at 10/1039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1243 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 074
Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 10 Oct 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 005/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10