Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 421 km/s at 07/2322Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 07/2302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1081 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 072
Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 08 Oct 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 005/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10