Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct, 08 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 05/1903Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/1919Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 05/1915Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 42682 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 072
Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 05 Oct 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 010/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 25/10/10