Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 578 km/s at 30/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32431 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (04 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 073
Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 01 Oct 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 009/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 011/012-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/05
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 40/25/10