Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 September 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 678 km/s at 29/0012Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 28/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 28/2353Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13675 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (01 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 073
Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 29 Sep 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 021/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 028/038
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 021/020-013/015-011/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/10
Minor Storm 30/15/01
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/20
Minor Storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 75/45/10