Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 September 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 351 km/s at 22/1730Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/0206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0644Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 152 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (24 Sep) and unsettled levels on day three (25 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 072
Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 22 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 008/010-010/012-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/40/40