Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 September 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 330 km/s at 19/0151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 161 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 071
Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 19 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/10