Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 September 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 09/2337Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/1426Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/0443Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3580 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 069
Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 10 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10