Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 September 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s at 07/0137Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/1513Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 07/1107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10220 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 070
Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 07 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20