Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 September 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 02/2105Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/1439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/0502Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14197 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 070
Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 03 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 005/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20