Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 31/0841Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/1032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 31/1025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3504 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Sep, 02 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 070
Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 31 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 021/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 013/015-011/012-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/50/40