Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 28/1731Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 28/1548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/1521Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 161 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 070
Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 28 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 011/012-010/012-013/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor Storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 50/60/50