Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug, 29 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 26/1824Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/0224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/1509Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 132 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 070
Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 26 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 007/008-007/008-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/40
Minor Storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/30/50