Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug, 27 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 415 km/s at 24/0214Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 179 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (27 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 070
Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 24 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 011/012-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/10