Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 331 km/s at 21/0805Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/2004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/2004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 071
Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 070/069/069
90 Day Mean 21 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 006/005-007/006-006/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/20