Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 340 km/s at 17/0724Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at. 16/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/0550Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 415 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 071
Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 17 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 005/005-008/008-013/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/35
Minor Storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/50