Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 15/0647Z from Region 2770 (N26W85). There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 311 km/s at 15/0157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 631 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 071
Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 071/070/070
90 Day Mean 15 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10