Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 06/1418Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/0239Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/0035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1974 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (07 Aug, 09 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 073
Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 06 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 006/005-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/10