Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 June 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 341 km/s at 13/1217Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 150 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Jun, 15 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 069
Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 069/069/068
90 Day Mean 13 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 005/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25