Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 June 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 07/2051Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 07/1631Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/1812Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 162 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 073
Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 07 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 011/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/05/05
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 40/05/05