Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 June 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (02 Jun) and expected to be very low on days two and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 435 km/s at 31/2236Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 176 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Jun, 03 Jun, 04 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 069
Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 070/072/072
90 Day Mean 01 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10