Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 May 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 May, 31 May, 01 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 318 km/s at 29/2049Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/1116Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 167 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 May, 31 May) and quiet levels on day three (01 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M 20/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 070
Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 29 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 008/008-009/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/05