Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 May 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 19/2003Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/2341Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/0521Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 141 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (21 May, 22 May).

III. Event probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 069
Predicted 20 May-22 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 19 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/10/05