Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 May 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 354 km/s at 11/0522Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/0257Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0224Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 177 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May).

III. Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 066
Predicted 12 May-14 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 11 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10