Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 May 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 329 km/s at 10/1822Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/1946Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/1946Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 169 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 May, 12 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 May).

III. Event probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 068
Predicted 11 May-13 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 10 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 05/10/25