Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 May 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 360 km/s at 06/1532Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/2315Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/0223Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 135 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).

III. Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 070
Predicted 07 May-09 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 06 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 006/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10