Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 May 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 344 km/s at 02/2245Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 03/2000Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/1825Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).

III. Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 069
Predicted 04 May-06 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 03 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 008/008-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/25/20