Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 April 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s at 28/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 166 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Apr,
01 May, 02 May).

III. Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 070
Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 29 Apr 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 007/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20