Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 April 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 25/0526Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/0020Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/0034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 211 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Apr 069
Predicted 26 Apr-28 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 25 Apr 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 007/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20