Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 April 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 22/2300Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 23/0145Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 342 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Apr 069
Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 23 Apr 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10