Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 April 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr, 22 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 335 km/s at 19/0626Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 160 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 069
Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 19 Apr 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 009/012-010/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/25