Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 April 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 15/0303Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/2200Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 208 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 068
Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 15 Apr 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 007/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/10