Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 April 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 12/0654Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/0459Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0834Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Apr 071
Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 12 Apr 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10