Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 April 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 408 km/s at 10/1336Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/1449Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 249 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expectedto be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Apr 069
Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 069/068/068
90 Day Mean 10 Apr 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 010/012-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 45/10/10