Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 April 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr, 10 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 340 km/s at 07/0345Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/2039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/2025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 606 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Apr, 09 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 070
Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 07 Apr 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/25