Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 April 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 05/0647Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/0257Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/0156Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 413 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 071
Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 05 Apr 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10